Here comes the Liberitarian Army

Former Representative (and former Republican) Bob Barr has announced that he will seek the presidency - likely on the Libertarian ticket. The Libertarian convention to nominate such a candidate is on May 22nd, but Barr is not foreseen to have too much difficulty gaining the nomination. Who is Bob Barr and what will the effect of a Barr candidacy be on the 2008 general election?

BOB BARR IN SHORT:
Barr first entered Congress in 1994 on the back of the 'Republican Revolution' by upsetting six-term Democrat Congressman Buddy Darden. Barr served until 2003 where he simultaneously left Congress and the Republican Party in order to become a Libertarian. Barr was considered one of the most conservative members of the Republican caucus, and was seen as a leader on Clinton's impeachment trials (that's how you build up conservative street cred); however, he differed with the Bush administration on civil liberties and privacy issues (that's how you build libertarian street cred). He has even been a prominent member of the ACLU in recent years. He has decided this year to pursue the libertarian nomination, and official announced his candidacy on May 12th.

EFFECT ON MCCAIN:
McCain stands the most to lose from Barr entering the race. This effect will be minimal on the popular vote as a whole (Nader only received 2.7% in 2000), but could cause some wrinkles in the state-to-state projections (as Nader had some effect in 2000) and the "Ron Paul effect" could hurt his Republican image.

"Ron Paul Effect"
The media has turned all of its attention to the (still?) contested Democratic primary, but lets remember that the Republicans are still holding primary elections. And Ron Paul is still performing well without even actively campaigning. For instance, the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd was a gut-retching contest for Democrats, but what happened on the Republican side? Well, without campaigning at all Ron Paul earned 16% of the vote - that is 128,483 votes! McCain may have won the Republican nomination, but he still has yet to win the heart of the whole party. The Ron Paul phenomenon has given rise to a devout underground of libertarian-style Republicans who are more ideological than they are party faithful. If Bob Barr sees the same kind of numbers across the country as Ron Paul has for the primary then McCain has a serious problem on his hands.

If there is not a problem with actual voting, the Ron Paul effect may manufacture a public relations problem for the McCain campaign. There are whispers of a push by Ron Paulians to hijack the party platform formation process at the Republican National Convention. Libertarian minded Republicans could push for a more libertarian view on social issues (abortion), push for a withdrawal from Iraq (tough on security?), and embracing privacy issues (no more wiretapping). I do not believe that they will be successful in this attempt, but that is not the point. The attempt itself may severely damage the McCain and produce those libertarian-minded Republicans to do the same as Bob Barr and jump ship.

"Georgia on my Mind"
Just so you know, you are going to see the Hoagy Carmichael reference a lot in the coming months. Because, with Barack Obama as the nominee the Democrats have a chance to compete in largely Republican states, namely Georgia. Let's just look at some numbers, first.

2004 Election: Georgia (15 electoral votes)

Bush: 1,914,254

Kerry: 1,366,149

Badnarik (Libertarian Party):

18,387

What do these numbers tell you? Honestly, not much, but they are fun to look at. What they MAY tell you is that Badnarik, who is from Indiana, received 18,000 votes, which will be a low figure compared to what Bob Barr (who represented the GA 7th for 9 years) could receive. Honestly, if Obama is going to win Georgia he is going to have to do it on his own without the help of Bob Barr. But, Barr represented 629,706 Georgians and could make the feat a little easier for Obama.

The effect of a Barr candidacy on McCain will mostly be image-oriented, but in a year where the Republicans have deep-seated image problems, this does not come as good news to the McCain campaign.

EFFECT ON OBAMA:
The effect on the Obama campaign is hard to read without psycho-analyzing the typical libertarian voter, but it will be minimal. Obama continually talks about his appeal to "disillusioned Republicans". That pitch may be harder to make if Bob Barr finds himself actually making headway with the press. Disillusioned Republicans who are against the Iraq War and oppose Bush's imperialistic mentality, may find a home in Barr's camp over Obama's.


In short, we should wait to see what the Republican National Convention comes to show us about the libertarian force within the Republican party. If McCain is able to avoid the story, then he will be in a good position to neutralize any threat from the Barr candidacy. However, everyone figured that Nader would have no effect in 2000.

- Wyatt Schroeder