Senate 2008 Update: Virginia (Senator John Warner)

CQ Politics, in January 2007, labeled this seat as Favored Republican. Think so now?

Senator John Warner announced his retirement, as was speculated, and a ripple was sent through the Republican Party. Warner’s retirement has offered up the chance that “reliably red” Virginia may go blue. Former Secretary of the Navy, Jim Webb in 2006, defeated Incumbent Senator George Allen and now the other Republican Senator is leaving open the chance of another Democratic victory.

Two high-profile Virginia Republicans are seeking to keep the seat in Republican hands: Representative Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore. Davis, representing moderate northern Virginia, is expected to get the support of Senator John Warner. Governor Jim Gilmore was an early candidate for president but was one of the first to drop out of the race. Gilmore will attract more conservative, southern Virginia voters and likely split the Republican party for the primary. But, whomever the Republican nominee is will have an uphill battle for them in the general election.

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner has announced his intentions to run much to pleasure of all Democratic voters. Mark Warner was thought to compete with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president, but announced that he would not run. His name is still on everyone’s short list for vice-presidential candidates. A popular governor, Warner represents the centrist wing of the Democratic party that has found its home in Virginia. Warner is the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination and, also, the favorite for the general election.

Rasmussen, a known polling group, did an early survey in September on a general election between the top-two Republican contenders and Warner. Warner defeated Tom Davis 57-30 and defeated Gilmore 54-34. This early polling, while ultimately irrelevant, shows the race is in Mark Warner’s hands.

CQPolitics’ designation is grossly outdated now and should be moved to Leans Democratic. Mark Warner’s popularity in Virginia should not be overestimated, especially in conjunction with the Democratic trend in Virginia at-large. The last two Governors were Democrats and now half of the U.S. Senators are Democrats. Just last week CQPolitics, following Senator Warner’s retirement, changed its designation of this race from Republican Favored to Leans Democratic.

- Wyatt Earp

Senate 2008 Update: Nebraska (Senator Chuck Hagel)

CQ Politics, in January 2007, labeled this seat as Safe Republican. Let's see how it looks now.

Two weeks ago, Senator Hagel announced that he would retire from the Senate after the expiration of his term, ending speculation that he would run for re-election and/or run for president in 2008. Hagel’s announcement adds another area of concern for the Republicans senatorial chances.

Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning has been campaigning since last spring when he announced that he would challenge Hagel in the primary. Hagel’s opposition to the war in Iraq and his maverick approach to politics have angered many in GOP circles. With Hagel’s announcement, Bruning is the only Republican actively campaigning; however, he is still not the favorite. Former Nebraska governor and current U.S. Agriculture Secretary, Mike Johanns intends to run for the open Senate seat. The Bruning campaign released a poll that showed a competitive primary is ahead. In the poll, 39% of those surveyed voiced support for Johanns while 30% supported Bruning.

The Democratic hopes of turning this seat blue lie in the hands of Bob Kerrey. Kerrey was governor of Nebraska for four years in the 80s and served as Nebraska’s Senator for two terms from 1988-2000. He was also an unsuccessful presidential candidate in 1992. He has extremely high name recognition and is viewed as a maverick-type much akin to his friend, Chuck Hagel; however, one problem exists: Kerrey has not yet declared that he will run. Speculation runs ramped as Kerrey has often alluded to an interest and even told board members at The New School in NYC, where he is president that he is considering a return to public life. If Kerrey enters the race then the Democrats hold the advantage. Kerrey is a former chairman of the DSCC and understands the importance of this race.

Hagel’s retirement has to move this race to Leans Republican, because it will be a highly targeted race. However, if Kerrey announces then the seat may move quickly to No Clear Favorite. Republicans hold the advantage in Nebraska at large, but they will be dealing with a seasoned, popular figure in Kerrey, if, and only if, he runs.

- Wyatt Earp

Senate 2008 Update: Oregon (Senator Gordon Smith)

CQ Politics, in January 2007, designated this race as leaning Republican, which, for incumbents, is tantamount to saying “targeted seat.” The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, led by New York Senator, Chuck Schumer, believes that with the right recruitment they can defeat incumbent Senator, Gordon Smith.

Oregon has been progressively becoming a strong Democratic seat and made more gains in the 2006 cycle. In 2006, the Democrats gained control of the state House by wrestling four seats from the Republicans. The Democratic Senate, in 2006, also increased its majority from 18-12 to 18-11 with one seat now being held by an independent. And after November 2006, the Democrats maintained control of the governorship and four of the five congressional seats.

The state may not be favorable to Republicans, but it has been to Gordon Smith who has won re-election easily in 2002 with 56% of the vote over his Democratic challenger’s 40%. Senator Smith has also gone out of his way to appear moderate by opposing President Bush’s Iraq policies and becoming only one of a handful of Republicans to vote in favor of a timetable for withdrawal. However, despite this moderate appeal, Smith has seen his approval ratings drop substantially: in December 2006, Smith had a 56-33 approve-disapprove rating but has seen that fall to a 46-44 approve-disapprove rating by August 2007. Statistically, just as many Oregonians approve of Smith’s job performance as do disapprove, which is a major concern for the two-term incumbent.

As 2006 showed, recruitment is the best hope for Democrats to defeat incumbents. The DSCC went out and asked some notable Oregon names to run against Smith, such as Rep. Peter DeFazio, former governor John Kitzhaber, and Rep. Earl Blumanauer. Senator Schumer was finally successful when Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley announced his candidacy. This led Republicans to call Merkley the “best of the B-list of candidates.”

Also entering the race is independent John Frohnmayer, former chairman of the National Endowment of the Arts and member of the well-known Frohnmayer. Being a Frohnmayer and brother of David Frohnmayer, former President of University of Oregon and former Attorney General, gives John unusually high name-recognition for an independent candidate. The ten-dollar question in Oregon now is who will Frohnmayer take votes from? Traditionally, independent candidates do not win elections but merely “spoil” the election for another one of the parties.

Frohnmayer’s appeal to “fiscal conservatives” or, what he calls, “traditional Republican values” will hurt Smith with moderate-right voters. Smith supported the Iraq War until recently, some say until he realized his seat was vulnerable. Frohnmayer, who opposed the Iraq War since the beginning, may persuade moderate Republicans by making Smith look like his positions are dictated by electoral prospects. This will hurt Smith, but the Democrats are not immune to Frohnmayer’s candidacy. Frohnmayer, a former Democrat, is running on the same “culture of corruption” platform that most Democrats ran on in 2006; however, he is blaming Democrats as well for Washington’s ethics problems. “Clean-it up” progressive may be persuaded by Frohnmayer and hurt the Democrat’s chances.

In an August 20^th Riley Research poll, 38% of voters said they would vote for Smith, 19% for Merkley, the early Democratic favorite, and 7% for Frohnmayer. However, 35% said that they were undecided.

This seat is well classified at Leans Republican, because Smith still holds the advantage as an incumbent but he is now looking at being hit from two sides with Frohnmayer entering the race. This will be a competitive race.

- Wyatt Earp

Don't help your enemy when they're falling apart

The 2006 election was considered by most Republicans, and many Democrats, to be the high-water mark of Democratic success. Republicans sight their fatal shoot-yourself-in-the-foot disease as the cause of the Democratic take-over rather than a substantive Democratic agenda. Democrats, however, furthered their cause by perpetuating the phrase, created by Rahm Emanuel, "the culture of corruption" that summed up the nation's feelings of the Republican controlled Congress. The Republican rebuttal of "the Democrats have no issues and have their own corruption issues, just look at Rep. William Jefferson of Louisiana," did not break through and the Democrats ran the table. The basic Democrat strategy was to violate an axiom developed by Democrat Tip O'Neill: all politics is local. By nationalizing the election the focus would be put on the aggregate Republican instead of the individual Republican. (Americans tend to view Congress, as a whole, negatively while still liking their individual representative)

However, Republicans saw it as manna from heaven when they starting seeing poll numbers that rated the Democrat-controlled Congress with roughly 20% approval. (a recent Pew Research Poll put it at 23%, but some numbers have been considerably lower). Republicans are now quick to label it a "do-nothing Congress", a homage to what Harry Truman called the Republican-controlled Congress in route to his 1948 electoral upset. Maybe, just maybe, 2008 is the year for Republicans to get back on the horse! If only they can avoid making the news for things that would be considered part of "the culture of corruption."

The last thing that the Republicans have done since 2006 is avoid the perception that they're still plagued by a "culture of corruption." Over the summer, it was reported that Republican Senator David Vitter had had relations with the infamous "D.C. Madam" and pleaded guilty to soliciting sex. And just today, Republican Senator Larry Craig has announced that he will resign from the Senate at the end of September after pleading guilty to misdemeanor where he solicited sex from a male undercover police officer while in the Minneapolis airport. As a side note, Republican Senator John Warner from Virginia has said that he will not seek re-election in 2008. This has led to a lot of speculation that popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner will seek the seat. That is a great opportunity for the Democrats to pick up another Senate seat.

At least Republicans can count on the White House to remain stalwart, as it always has. Despite its lagging, that's one word for it, poll numbers, the Bush administration can still use its remaining political clout to help challenge the Democrats in Congress. However, the Bush administration is becoming severely hampered in its ability to challenge just about anything. Earlier in the summer, close Bush advisor, former communications director and White House counselor Dan Barlett announced his intentions to leave. A Bush loyalist, Barlett had been with Bush since his days in Texas and was one of few staffers who had unlimited access to the president. Then the bomb dropped with Karl Rove announcing his resignation from the White House. Rove had previously said that he planned on being in the White House until Jan 20, 2009, but the ousting of Scooter Libby in the Plame case, the disastrous 2006 elections and Rove's alleged connection to the attorney firings all expedited his leaving office. Then Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez, after a cloud of deception and smoke, resigned from office. That was a large political victory for the Democrats who had been urging for his resignation for a while, and slowly gaining Republican support. And then in a final blow, Bush announced that his press secretary Tony Snow will step down. Snow had been on the few faces that helped right the ship for the second term. However, no one smirks at his departure because Snow had continued his duties even while battling cancer. I, personally, really enjoyed watching Snow bring a certain amount of humor to his office.

In the end, the White House is weakened in its ability to combat the Democratic Congress and the Republicans are only perpetuating their "culture of corruption." In short, 2006 may not be the high-water mark, after all. And, what is the Democratic response to all of this? You'd be hard pressed to find one. The Democrats are following an old political axiom: If your enemy is self-destructing, don't help them. The Democrats stand to have more gains in 2008, and build upon an unpopular majority by defeating an even more unpopular minority.

-Wyatt Earp