CQ Politics, in January 2007, labeled this seat as Safe Republican. Let's see how it looks now.
Two weeks ago, Senator Hagel announced that he would retire from the Senate after the expiration of his term, ending speculation that he would run for re-election and/or run for president in 2008. Hagel’s announcement adds another area of concern for the Republicans senatorial chances.
Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning has been campaigning since last spring when he announced that he would challenge Hagel in the primary. Hagel’s opposition to the war in Iraq and his maverick approach to politics have angered many in GOP circles. With Hagel’s announcement, Bruning is the only Republican actively campaigning; however, he is still not the favorite. Former Nebraska governor and current U.S. Agriculture Secretary, Mike Johanns intends to run for the open Senate seat. The Bruning campaign released a poll that showed a competitive primary is ahead. In the poll, 39% of those surveyed voiced support for Johanns while 30% supported Bruning.
The Democratic hopes of turning this seat blue lie in the hands of Bob Kerrey. Kerrey was governor of Nebraska for four years in the 80s and served as Nebraska’s Senator for two terms from 1988-2000. He was also an unsuccessful presidential candidate in 1992. He has extremely high name recognition and is viewed as a maverick-type much akin to his friend, Chuck Hagel; however, one problem exists: Kerrey has not yet declared that he will run. Speculation runs ramped as Kerrey has often alluded to an interest and even told board members at The New School in NYC, where he is president that he is considering a return to public life. If Kerrey enters the race then the Democrats hold the advantage. Kerrey is a former chairman of the DSCC and understands the importance of this race.
Hagel’s retirement has to move this race to Leans Republican, because it will be a highly targeted race. However, if Kerrey announces then the seat may move quickly to No Clear Favorite. Republicans hold the advantage in Nebraska at large, but they will be dealing with a seasoned, popular figure in Kerrey, if, and only if, he runs.
- Wyatt Earp
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