Senate 2008 Update: Virginia (Senator John Warner)

CQ Politics, in January 2007, labeled this seat as Favored Republican. Think so now?

Senator John Warner announced his retirement, as was speculated, and a ripple was sent through the Republican Party. Warner’s retirement has offered up the chance that “reliably red” Virginia may go blue. Former Secretary of the Navy, Jim Webb in 2006, defeated Incumbent Senator George Allen and now the other Republican Senator is leaving open the chance of another Democratic victory.

Two high-profile Virginia Republicans are seeking to keep the seat in Republican hands: Representative Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore. Davis, representing moderate northern Virginia, is expected to get the support of Senator John Warner. Governor Jim Gilmore was an early candidate for president but was one of the first to drop out of the race. Gilmore will attract more conservative, southern Virginia voters and likely split the Republican party for the primary. But, whomever the Republican nominee is will have an uphill battle for them in the general election.

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner has announced his intentions to run much to pleasure of all Democratic voters. Mark Warner was thought to compete with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president, but announced that he would not run. His name is still on everyone’s short list for vice-presidential candidates. A popular governor, Warner represents the centrist wing of the Democratic party that has found its home in Virginia. Warner is the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination and, also, the favorite for the general election.

Rasmussen, a known polling group, did an early survey in September on a general election between the top-two Republican contenders and Warner. Warner defeated Tom Davis 57-30 and defeated Gilmore 54-34. This early polling, while ultimately irrelevant, shows the race is in Mark Warner’s hands.

CQPolitics’ designation is grossly outdated now and should be moved to Leans Democratic. Mark Warner’s popularity in Virginia should not be overestimated, especially in conjunction with the Democratic trend in Virginia at-large. The last two Governors were Democrats and now half of the U.S. Senators are Democrats. Just last week CQPolitics, following Senator Warner’s retirement, changed its designation of this race from Republican Favored to Leans Democratic.

- Wyatt Earp