Colorado Senate 2008: Mark Udall v. Bob Schaffer

I went dark for about two weeks because I was completing a mock campaign for George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management summer program. We were running the 2008 open-seat Senate race in Colorado. It will be the most competitive Senate race in 2008 and should be looked upon with great interest. Two-term Senator Wayne Allard (Republican) is stepping down from his Colorado seat, giving the Democrats their best opportunity to widened their majority in the Senate. Two people have already declared: Republican Bob Schaffer and Democrat Mark Udall. Quick history:

Bob Schaffer - Schaffer served for nine years in the State Senator before being elected to the U.S. Congress from Colorado's Fourth District in 1996. He served in Congress till Jan, 2003 when he began his failed primary campaign for the U.S. Senate - he lost in the primary to Pete Coors who ended up losing the general election to Ken Salazar in 2004. He was appointed, in 2005, to fulfill a vacancy in the Colorado Board of Education and then ran successfully in 2006 for that seat.

Mark Udall- Udall was the director of Colorado's Outward Bound School for a decade. After serving one term in the Colorado House of Representatives, Udall successfully ran for Congress in Colorado's Second District. He is currently serving his fifth term in Congress. Mark comes from the political Udall family. His father Mo was a Congressman from Colorado for 30 years and his uncle Stewart was the Secretary of the Interior under John F. Kennedy.

The state of Colorado: Colorado is trending blue in a big way. Before 2004, a Democrat had not won a Colorado Senate seat since 1986. But, Ken Salazar defeated Pete Coors with a margin of 5% of the vote. In 2006, Democrat Bill Ritter Jr. won the governorship in a cake-walk, defeating Republican Bob Beauprez by a margin of 17% of the vote. Democrats now hold a majority of U.S. Congress seats (4 to 3) and recently won the majority in the State House and Senate. 2006 became the first time in 50 years that a Democratic governor had a Democratic House of Representatives to work with. However, this can not mean that the Democrats will win without a fight. The majority of registered voters (around 42%) are unaffiliated, and the number of registered Republicans outnumbered the number of registered Democrats. So, the independents or unaffiliated voters decide the election at every turn. Colorado will elect a moderate in 2008, but will it be a moderate Democrat or a moderate Republican?

What issues should each campaign lead with?

Schaffer's Message Box
Strengths - Shaffer has a tremendous record on education and he should run with it. He is considered a national leader on education, favoring local, not federal, control of schools. He is a strong proponent of charter schools (which do not take funding from public schools) and voted against No Child Left Behind. Education is not currently a top line issue, but will become so once NCLB comes up for re-authorization and every school will start asking itself: am I better off now than I was in 2002? This could play to Schaffer's favor as he will argue that local communities should fight against the federal bureaucracy that took away your funding when you needed it the most. And his two years on the Colorado Board of Education will only strengthen this issue.

Education can be used as a "bridge issue" where voters will listen to Schaffer enumerate other issues because they agree with him on education. Schaffer has a strong record of boarder security and will likely use this issue to his favor in a state that has a large immigrant population. This would energize the base, but could backfire in a 20% Hispanic/Latino state.

Weaknesses- Schaffer's Achilles heel to his education policy could be his adamant support of vouchers. He is the President of Parental Alliance for Choice in Education, a non-profit that advocates for more vouchers in Colorado. Udall has a strong anti-vouchers record and has argued to oppose anything that "breaks apart one of the last institutions that hold us together as a society, and that's our public schools." Schaffer should worry about getting branded "anti-public schools and pro-vouchers." Two simplistic arguments that likely could stick.

Schaffer is vice-president of Aspect Energy, LLC, which focuses on energy, mining and other projects. This could prove to be a liability to Schaffer. The environment is a cause championed by many in Colorado and is not a partisan issue there as seen elsewhere. Udall, if deft, will try to brand Schaffer as a pawn of Big Interests, as shown by his seat on the board of a Big Energy firm. The term "Colorado is not for sale" will likely come up at least once. As global warming becomes a larger issue, firms like Schaffer's are being to be seen as the opposition.

Lastly, Schaffer voted for the authorization of the War in Iraq and has not differed greatly from that opinion since.

Possible Messages/Themes: "Returning power to Colorado." "Bob Schaffer, because Colorado deserves the choice." "Bob Schaffer: national leader, local focus." "Putting Colorado first." If challenged in the primary: "The True Conservative choice."

These are possible message or themes that the Schaffer camp could employ. All of them speak to returning the locus of power to Colorado and away from the federal government, which is the value that binds all of Schaffer's positions together. Also, it is a truly conservative value and differs from the Bush brand of conservativism, so Schaffer should stay away, politically and financially, from the lightning rod that is Bush. Schaffer is a true conservative and he should not be afraid to say so.

Mark Udall - Message Box
Strengths- Udall's first strength is his name. Udall is a trusted name out west, and in uncertain times, going to the name you trust is always prevalent. While Schaffer has the edge in education experience the wind is still at Udall's back. Education is a net-plus issue for Democrats (Democrats are seen as the best arbiters of education policy) and Udall has some credentials on the issue. Udall served twenty years on the faculty of the Outward Bound School, the last ten as the executive director of Colorado's Outward Bound system. (Outward Bound teaches environmental education by taking disadvantaged children and giving them an education by combining classroom with the outdoors.) This helps Udall because it bridges perfectly to his strong environmental position.

Udall has served the past ten years as the congressman from Colorado's second district, which includes Broomfield, Boulder, Eagle, Jefferson and Adams counties - all of which are important swing counties, and represent nearly 35% of the entire CO electorate.

Lastly, Udall voted against authorization of the war in Iraq in 2002, but has not voted for a withdrawal. He has developed a position that is moderate and appealing to the independent Colorado voters.

Weaknesses- Udall's greatest weakness is the constituency that he represents. The Udall camp's greatest fear should be being labeled a "Boulder liberal" and not being able to shake the image. Because in the end, campaign are about competing images (one developed by yourself and one developed by your opponent), which one will prevail? Issues support that image. Udall must use every opportunity from here on out to be seen as a moderate with consistent Western values. Udall has been seen recently hanging around Representative Marilyn Musgrave, an ultra-conservative. While being bi-partisan is the image Udall wants to create, hanging around Musgrave will likely alienate his liberal base. Udall has a line to straddle and must never be caught riding side-saddle.

Possible Messages/Themes: "Trust Udall to secure our future." "Leading Colorado forward." "

The image that I think Udall should pursue is one of motion. This is for two reasons: 1) Using words like "future" or "leading" or "forward" allow the listener to picture a world moving away from Bush's legacy and toward a brighter tomorrow. 2) Colorado is trending blue and moving forward should also mean "continuing to move Democrat."


This will be the most hotly contested campaign outside of the presidential race. You know this because the west will be the focus of the Democrat's presidential campaign. The Dems are looking to "whistle past Dixie" and paint the west blue. That is why the Democratic National Convention will be held in Denver, Colorado (prime real-estate for a west campaign and for the Udall campaign). But, these are merely my impressions after studying the two candidates and the actual campaign will likely look nothing like the snap-shot presented above. I'll keep an ear to the ground and let you know as this develops.

-Wyatt Earp