The lack of immigration reform has spurred the question: Are the Hispanics going to vote overwhelmingly for the Democrats now? My initial instinct is 'yes', but there plenty of time until the 2008 elections. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has already developed a TV spot that labels the Republicans as "Obstructionists" for their part in derailing immigration reform, stem cell research, the Iraq War legislation and other great hits. I, personally, believe that the ad is effective because they display countless Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Sens. Sessions, Demint, Vitter, and others, all singing the chorus of "I object." It leaves the viewing thinking "do the Republicans agree with anything or just object to everything?", which is exactly the question that Democrats want voters asking. The New Know Nothing Party believes in nothing but objects to everything.
Back to immigration reform: Now that the bill is dead it is no longer time to debate the specifics but time to play politics with the outcome. The Democrats have a Phoenix moment before them: out of the ashes of the immigration bill can come great opportunity for electoral success. How will this happen? Hispanics, the Democrats hope, are so frustrated with the Republicans not supporting any immigration reform that they will elect any generic Democrat. In doing so, the Democrats will have a larger majority to operate with and can enact more wide-sweeping, permanent immigration reform. What is the likelihood of this?
A recent USA Today poll said that only 11% of Hispanics identify themselves as Republicans, as opposed to 19% in 2004. Also, an Wall Street Journal Poll reports that, among Hispanic voters, 61% would vote for a generic Democratic candidate in 2008 while only 22% would vote for a generic Republican candidate. President Bush received 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, and that key voting bloc was the reason he won re-election. With the Republican slowly being defined as the anti-immigration (read: anti-Hispanic) party, the prospects are looking dim for 2008.
However, Democrats should not take this voting trend for granted. Hispanics may constitute a key voting bloc, they still do not turn out to vote regularly. For instance, in California in 2002, according to Field Institute, Latinos made up 28% of the adult population but only 16% of the likely voters. There may be many Republican sleepers out there if brought out to vote. Democrats must do a better job of getting out the Hispanic vote. Step one for any candidate: learn Spanish.
Democrats are already making strides to garner the Hispanic vote (Hispanics are 14.5% of the U.S. population). The Democratic National Convention is being held in Denver, Colorado. Hispanics represent the largest minority in Colorado, constituting 20% of the total population (2000 Census, number has likely risen). Denver is a great stepping stone to other Hispanic states that have been put in play due to the Republicans Know-Nothing taint. The states where Hispanics are the key swing vote are: Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, Arizona and Nevada.
Here is a little break down:
Arizona (10 electoral votes) 28.6% Hispanic or Latino
Nevada (5 electoral votes) 23.7% Hispanic or Latino
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) 43.6% Hispanic or Latino
Florida (27 electoral votes) 19.6% Hispanic or Latino
Colorado (9 electoral votes) 20% Hispanic or Latino
Holding equal the 2004 results: if the Democrat nominee picks up each of these states he/she wins the Electoral College 308-230, a handy victory. The Democrat nominee need only pick up Florida or win any three of the four western states to ensure victory.
The numbers look good for the Democrats, but they are their states to lose, at the moment. It is still a long time until November 4, 2008 for any voter. It should also be reminded that Hispanics and Latinos, like any voting bloc, are not monolithic and make their own decisions, but the trends still exist.
Also, while looking at the Electoral math: the Democrat nominee may forgo the Hispanic question and focus solely on Ohio (20 electoral votes) to win the general election. Ohio has been trending blue in the past few years. In 2006, Democrat Ted Strickland won the governorship, and Sherrod Brown defeated the incumbent Senator, the moderate Republican, Mike DeWine. It seems to be trending blue and the pundits are predicting that the Democrats will pick it up in 2008. If they do, then the game might already be over and we saved America the trouble of voting.
-Wyatt Earp
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4 comments:
But is there something symbolic about picking up the Hispanic vote? Is it too much to ask to get the hispanic vote and Ohio? What would it mean for the next candidate to win with Ohio but lose the fastest growing minority?
Ideas?
The ultimate goal for the next Democratic presidential candidate should be, in my opinion, to win Ohio or Florida. Ohio does not have as large a Hispanic population as Florida, so, I think, nationally, the Democratic candidate should focus on the Hispanic population. Because focusing solely on Ohio wins you 20 electoral votes while substantially winning the Hispanic population could win you upwards of 50 electoral votes.
Interestingly enough, JFK released an ad in 1960 where Jackie Kennedy spoke entirely in Spanish and it is one of the first TV ads to be targeted to a specific voting segment. I think the next Dem nominee should do the same: write some spanish ads and learn Spanish. If they realized how important Hispanic were in 1960, I think we can emulate the same in 2008.
A candidate learning Spanish could go two ways, I suppose, just thinking off the top of my head:
1. It could be seen as the first (or second if people remember 1960) real attempt to reach out in a positive way towards Spanish speaking voters that does not involve immigration reform as a manipulative method
or
2. It could reopen the debate on national language, and it could scare the crap out of everyone who denies the strength of the Hispanic minority
Just throwing thoughts around. You got me thinking.
I don't think that a candidate has to be speak fluent Spanish in any means, but I have heard that Hispanics enjoy the effort, nonetheless. Frankly speaking, Hispanics are not going to fill the seats at a campaign rally and if a candidate attends a conference of Latino persons of power (as just happened in Florida) then those members will likely speak English. I think the effort itself will prove worthwhile.
However, I agree with your point about bringing up the English as a National Language. Although, I believe that that issue highlights the perceived racism of the Republican party. Assimilation happens naturally, lets not legislate inherent racism here. And if the Republican candidate comes out in support of English as the National Language (only a Tancredo character would be stupid enough to do so) then the Democrat should call him out on it. But, then again, there is a 75% chance that I am full of crap.
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