Senate 2008 Update: Oregon (Senator Gordon Smith)

CQ Politics, in January 2007, designated this race as leaning Republican, which, for incumbents, is tantamount to saying “targeted seat.” The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, led by New York Senator, Chuck Schumer, believes that with the right recruitment they can defeat incumbent Senator, Gordon Smith.

Oregon has been progressively becoming a strong Democratic seat and made more gains in the 2006 cycle. In 2006, the Democrats gained control of the state House by wrestling four seats from the Republicans. The Democratic Senate, in 2006, also increased its majority from 18-12 to 18-11 with one seat now being held by an independent. And after November 2006, the Democrats maintained control of the governorship and four of the five congressional seats.

The state may not be favorable to Republicans, but it has been to Gordon Smith who has won re-election easily in 2002 with 56% of the vote over his Democratic challenger’s 40%. Senator Smith has also gone out of his way to appear moderate by opposing President Bush’s Iraq policies and becoming only one of a handful of Republicans to vote in favor of a timetable for withdrawal. However, despite this moderate appeal, Smith has seen his approval ratings drop substantially: in December 2006, Smith had a 56-33 approve-disapprove rating but has seen that fall to a 46-44 approve-disapprove rating by August 2007. Statistically, just as many Oregonians approve of Smith’s job performance as do disapprove, which is a major concern for the two-term incumbent.

As 2006 showed, recruitment is the best hope for Democrats to defeat incumbents. The DSCC went out and asked some notable Oregon names to run against Smith, such as Rep. Peter DeFazio, former governor John Kitzhaber, and Rep. Earl Blumanauer. Senator Schumer was finally successful when Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley announced his candidacy. This led Republicans to call Merkley the “best of the B-list of candidates.”

Also entering the race is independent John Frohnmayer, former chairman of the National Endowment of the Arts and member of the well-known Frohnmayer. Being a Frohnmayer and brother of David Frohnmayer, former President of University of Oregon and former Attorney General, gives John unusually high name-recognition for an independent candidate. The ten-dollar question in Oregon now is who will Frohnmayer take votes from? Traditionally, independent candidates do not win elections but merely “spoil” the election for another one of the parties.

Frohnmayer’s appeal to “fiscal conservatives” or, what he calls, “traditional Republican values” will hurt Smith with moderate-right voters. Smith supported the Iraq War until recently, some say until he realized his seat was vulnerable. Frohnmayer, who opposed the Iraq War since the beginning, may persuade moderate Republicans by making Smith look like his positions are dictated by electoral prospects. This will hurt Smith, but the Democrats are not immune to Frohnmayer’s candidacy. Frohnmayer, a former Democrat, is running on the same “culture of corruption” platform that most Democrats ran on in 2006; however, he is blaming Democrats as well for Washington’s ethics problems. “Clean-it up” progressive may be persuaded by Frohnmayer and hurt the Democrat’s chances.

In an August 20^th Riley Research poll, 38% of voters said they would vote for Smith, 19% for Merkley, the early Democratic favorite, and 7% for Frohnmayer. However, 35% said that they were undecided.

This seat is well classified at Leans Republican, because Smith still holds the advantage as an incumbent but he is now looking at being hit from two sides with Frohnmayer entering the race. This will be a competitive race.

- Wyatt Earp